How accurate are Vegas bookmaker odds?
It's a question that many of us must often ask ourselves: are betting odds accurate in the real world, and if so, how are they calculated? Do the sports betting odds offered at the likes of the SugarHouse sportsbook reflect the actual likelihood of a team or player winning, scoring, or reaching the championship?
In other words, how often do betting odds get it right – and what does the answer tell us about the betting business as a whole? How do handicappers like Doc's Sports Service make their predictions?
Measuring the accuracy的betting odds
How are betting odds determined for MLB lines and odds doc sports? It's important to remember at the start that betting odds are not a prediction of the outcome but a statement of the probability of a particular outcome. If a horse is a favorite to win a race, the bookmakers are not predicting that said horse will win.
The bookmakers are saying that sports betting money lines have a better chance of profit than the other horses in the race. However, the fact that they give odds on all horses reflects the truth: any of the horses could win. Some are more likely to succeed than others, and, of course, only one of them actually will win. This is what the odds try to reflect.
记住这一点,我们不能测量精度of the odds by looking at how regularly a favorite has won. How to read sports betting line in that case?
It's true, however, that technically if the odds on a specific outcome were consistently 2-1, then that outcome should occur 50% of the time. Such 'laboratory conditions' only really happen in casino betting, however, and in such cases, it does seem that the odds given are reasonably accurate. In the case of other sports betting portals, the natural world steps in a big way, like the latest one from 5 dimes.
How do bookies calculate odds? There are several qualifiers to this statement, however. First of all, the odds offered by a bookmaker or a casino are not the true odds, nor do they claim to be. The odds as given will always include a profit margin. Or, in the case of casinos, a house edge. How are odds calculated in football, for example, will vary depending on the provider and the circumstances. With major sporting events, the margin is typically around 5%.
您还会注意到，与赌场赔率不同，体育赛事中提供的投注百分比的几率通常会随着时间的推移而变化。这可能是因为更多信息可用或者因为情况发生了变化 - 例如，一支团队比预期更好。
However, often it is because best odds bookmaker is adjusting their margins in response to widespread betting on a specific outcome. To a large degree, betting odds reflect not so much the likelihood of a particular event occurring but what most people think is the likelihood of a specific event happening.
How odds of a sport betting prediction is calculated
Betting odds work because bookmakers will use various sources to calculate the true odds on an outcome. These will include statistics, form; history; and a range of opinions from experts, the general public, and others within the gaming industry. The more data is available, the more accurate the odds are. This is true even in when there is less volume like, such as betting odds game of thrones. The bookies then take into account how their customers are most likely to bet. The betting odds on NBA will differ from college football betting odds.
With sports betting, this will factor in regional team loyalties. A bookmaker in the UK taking bets on the pre match odds for theFIFAWorld Cup知道更多的盗窃者将返回英格兰，而不是团队的实际胜利的可能性应该决定。他们可能会增加或减少不同赌注的利润率，以劝阻或鼓励人们对特定结果进行投注。
How to beat the odds in sports betting?